Fall 2025 International Student Enrollment Outlook & Economic Impact

JB International

Preliminary projections by NAFSA: Association of International Educators and JB International based on available SEVIS and State Department data show potential shifts in international student enrollment and their contributions to the U.S. economy for Fall 2025. While SEVIS and visa issuance data early in 2025 suggested flat to modest growth, recent actions such as visa bans and disruptions in processing have introduced significant risks. Scenario modeling based on a potential 30-40 percent decline in new international student enrollment in the United States this fall could result in a 15 percent drop in overall enrollment. This drop would result in nearly $7 billion in lost revenue and more than 60,000 fewer jobs.

What’s Driving the Decline?

  • Visa Interview Suspension: Between May 27 and June 18, 2025, student visa interviews were paused during peak issuance season. U.S. consulates had up to five business days following the June 18 announcement ending the suspension (~June 26) to implement new social media vetting protocols and restore appointment availability to student visa applicants.
  • Appointment Availability Limited: There are reports of limited or no appointments for international students at consulates in India, China, Nigeria, and Japan. India and China are the top two international student sending countries to the United States; Nigeria is 7th and Japan is 13th.
  • Downward Visa Trends: F-1 issuance is down 12% January–April 2025 and 22% in May 2025 vs. 2024. June 2025 F-1 issuance data has not been published but may be down 80–90 percent.
  • Visa Bans: Restrictions targeting 55 countries (19 with June 4, 2025, Travel Ban plus another 36 rumored to be added) threaten $3 billion in annual contributions and 25,000+ U.S. jobs.
  • Timing Matters: Without significant recovery in visa issuance in July and August, up to 150,000 fewer students may arrive this fall.

Methodology

Data sources for analysis: