The State Department released F-1 visa issuance numbers covering May through August 2025, revealing that 36 percent fewer F-1 student visas were issued compared to the same period in 2024. While the drop in visa issuance does not directly translate to the same decline in enrollment, this finding certainly validates NAFSA's analysis with JB International last summer that predicted new international student enrollment could drop as much as 30 to 40 percent if visa processing issues (a pause in processing, obtuse social media screening requirements, an outright travel ban, etc.) were not addressed swiftly. The following is a statement by Fanta Aw, NAFSA executive director and CEO:
"Last summer, NAFSA and JB International warned that visa restrictions could drive a 30-40 percent drop in new international student enrollment. The latest visa issuance numbers from the State Department proves that prediction was on point. This decline is the direct result of policy changes that have erected unnecessary barriers for qualified students. International students today have more choices than ever, and if the United States signals that they are not welcome, they will simply go elsewhere.
"The consequences are real: billions in lost economic activity, tens of thousands of American jobs at risk, and damage to the nation’s global competitiveness and innovation potential. Consider that losing one-third of international students in U.S. STEM fields alone would cause long-term GDP losses of $240 to $481 billion each year. Driving away international student talent certainly does not make America safer, stronger, or more prosperous. NAFSA has reached out to request a meeting with the Assistant Secretary for Consular Affairs to discuss our long-standing concerns regarding visa processing.”