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New Research: U.S. Economy Could Suffer a Loss of $7 Billion and 60,000 Jobs

JB International

Preliminary projections by NAFSA: Association of International Educators and JB International based on available SEVIS and State Department data show potential shifts in international student enrollment and their contributions to the U.S. economy for Fall 2025. While SEVIS and visa issuance data early in 2025 suggested flat to modest growth, recent actions such as visa bans and disruptions in processing have introduced significant risks. 

The Findings

Scenario modeling based on a potential 30-40 percent decline in new international student enrollment in the United States this fall could result in a 15 percent drop in overall enrollment. This drop would result in nearly $7 billion in lost revenue and more than 60,000 fewer jobs. Users can view data for a specific state by selecting it from the dropdown menu at the top left of the graph.

Projected Losses by State 2025–26

2025 State Enrollment Losses Updated

What’s Driving the Decline?

  • Visa Interview Suspension: Between May 27 and June 18, 2025, student visa interviews were paused during the peak issuance season for students seeking to enroll in a U.S. institution this fall. As announced on June 18, the resumption of interviews carried a directive that U.S. consulates implement new social media vetting protocols and restore appointment availability to student visa applicants within five days (~June 26).
  • Limited Appointment Availability: There are reports of limited or no appointments for international students at consulates in India, China, Nigeria, and Japan. India and China are the top two international student sending countries to the United States; Nigeria is seventh and Japan is 13th.
  • Downward Visa Trends: F-1 issuance is down 12 percent from January to April 2025 and down 22 percent in May 2025 compared to May 2024. June 2025 F-1 issuance data has not been published but a decrease of 80–90 percent is possible based on the factors identified here.
  • Visa Bans: Restrictions targeting 19 countries as of a June 4, 2025, executive order, with another 36 rumored to be added, threaten $3 billion in annual contributions and more than 25,000 American jobs.

The Bottom Line

Without significant recovery in visa issuance in July and August, up to 150,000 fewer students may arrive this fall.

Policy Solutions

To mitigate this devastating outcome for cities, towns, and institutions, NAFSA urges the State Department to:

  1. provide expedited visa appointments and processing for all F-1 and M-1 students and J-1 exchange visitor applicants; and
  2. exempt F and M students as well as J exchange visitors from the travel restrictions currently banning the entry of nationals from 19 countries while maintaining background checks and vetting required for visa issuance.

Methodology

Data sources for analysis: 

Media Inquiries

Members of the media are encouraged to view the press release and contact NAFSA's media relations team with additional questions or to request an interview.