July/August 2025
By Davina Potts
At the turn of the century, approximately two million people crossed borders to study abroad (UNESCO 2024). By 2022, this number had tripled to around 6.4 million people, according to data released that year. Although the COVID-19 pandemic temporarily impeded mobility, a strong recovery has reverberated with record numbers of international students enrolling in the big four destination countries—Australia, Canada, United Kingdom, and United States—in 2023 and 2024. The world is experiencing phenomenal growth in international higher education participation, with output evidenced by the global flow of talent between countries and institutions.
The choice to study overseas is a serious investment. Decision-making often begins many years in advance and can determine elected curriculum in high school or earlier. And so, the nurturing of young talent begins. Strong academic performance and English language proficiency is required for admission into globally ranked institutions. The preparation process can take several years and often represents a major preoccupation for families.
For over three decades, families and students themselves have been the main drivers of destination choice for international education. They pursue the best opportunities for study considering location, cost, quality, safety, interests, career ambitions, and post-study work prospects. This is basic economic theory as students and their families carefully evaluate their return-on-investment. The consideration generally comes back to finding the best opportunity to nurture the talent of a young person in becoming a qualified professional capable of contributing to the society and economy of their chosen locality.
Growth in Globally Mobile Students
As unprecedented numbers of individuals choose to pursue higher education in another country, nation-states and institutions continue to struggle with how best to frame this mobility of knowledge, skills, and talent. Since the 1960s, researchers, educators, and policymakers have framed this concept as brain drain, brain gain, or brain circulation (OECD 2008; Rizvi 2006; The Economist 2002). Brain drain refers to highly skilled individuals moving from less-developed to more-developed countries to pursue work and study opportunities (OECD 2008). Put simply, developing nations lose human capital while advanced nations gain it as the best talent migrates for career and economic opportunities. Leading universities with global reputations and large research budgets have been implicated as strong drivers of brain drain/gain over the last few decades.
The dichotomous brain drain/gain paradigm has shifted to brain circulation as ‘losing’ countries enact policies to encourage the return of talent and as governments in these countries increase investment in their research and education sectors. China’s Young Thousand Talents Program (Stanford University 2023), for example, encourages foreign-educated STEM, early-career researchers to return to China after finishing their doctoral degrees. Brain circulation, thus, refers to individuals going abroad for education and professional development then returning home to apply their new knowledge, skills, and networks to their local context (OECD 2008).
All these concepts—brain drain, gain, and circulation—imply the relatively unrestricted mobility of talent across borders. Ilieva (2017, 25) found that overall, global student mobility is resilient. Although policy changes in one country may impact the number of students enrolling in that country, the total number of globally mobile students is not impacted and will continue to grow. For example, tightened immigration rules may move students from one destination to another, but the overall mobility continues as students seek out highly desired outcomes. This may include a degree from a globally ranked institution, a future career in a chosen sector, or the opportunity to seek residency after graduation.
A recent convergence of restrictive immigration policy initiatives in the top four destination countries, which represent 48 percent of total international students worldwide, however, suggests that the old push and pull dynamics might be fundamentally changing.
Recent Policy Changes
In May 2023, a U.K. government announcement foreshadowed a change in our concept of talent circulation and the free movement of students in international education and exchange. The announcement established new restrictions on the ability of student visa holders to bring dependents with them as well as introduced changes regarding access to work visas before the completion of a degree (GOV.UK 2023). These changes reflect the U.K. government’s commitment to reducing immigration by first closely coupling students with migration and then managing migration problems by reducing access to visas and work options.
Canada followed in January 2024, with its government announcing caps on study permits, stricter rules for students, and reduced access to post-graduate work permits. These changes aimed to reduce study permits by 35 percent in 2024 and to improve the integrity of the migration and education system (Canadian Government 2024).
Similarly, in August 2024, the Australian government announced a cap on international students for the first time, a policy response to high growth and integrity issues at some educational institutions. This followed after changes to student visa requirements including increased financial capacity, increased English language requirements, and the introduction of the Genuine Student Test (Australian Government 2024).
Most recently, the U.S. government introduced new measures to screen inbound student and exchange visa applicants for activism on issues flagged as hostile to the country. In the same cable to U.S. diplomatic posts, immigration officials were instructed to prioritize applications for institutions with less than 15 percent of an international student population (Toosi and Bazail-Eimil 2025). This is all happening simultaneously as the imposition of additional visa restrictions on nationals from certain countries and an increase in compliance actions for students working after completion of study on Optional Practical Training (OPT).
Across several of the big four destination countries, policy changes are reducing access to work visas after graduation. Domestic problems related to housing shortages, cost of living pressures, education system integrity, and national security have shifted the popular narrative of international education from the development of skills and talent (relevant to the needs of the local community) to the need to control immigration in order to protect the local community. Migration was a key issue in recent national elections in the United Kingdom, United States, Canada, and Australia, and international students were frequently pulled into debates on the negative impacts of migrants.
A Shift Is Underway
A recent report released by Studyportals in collaboration with NAFSA and the Oxford Test of English indicates that the proportion of students enrolling in study programs in the four leading study destinations has declined in 2025 (Skikne 2025). Simultaneously, interest in other destinations is growing as alternative destinations gaining market share include China, Germany, Italy, Japan, Malaysia, the Netherlands, and South Korea. To keep their options open in case of policy changes, students are considering programs in multiple countries as they apply to institutions.
Additionally, as education systems improve and become more attractive, students in some countries are opting for more local institutions. This may mean, for instance, entering the intensely competitive domestic admissions testing system in China or applying to a neighboring country with greater cultural familiarity and lower costs than countries further abroad. Malaysia has recently joined Japan, Singapore, and South Korea as a popular destination for Chinese students. Applications from Chinese students to higher education institutions in Malaysia increased 25 percent between 2023 and 2024 (Education Malaysia Global Services 2025).
The policy landscape for higher education appears to be solidifying around tighter controls and sustainability of international student enrollments. While it is possible that the enrollment downturn in the big four receiving countries is somewhat predictable following high growth in the post-pandemic years, policy changes and negative market sentiment may lead to higher declines than the 10–20 percent range defined by economists as a market correction. Institutions in these countries are adapting, even as lobbying continues in government hallways and in the media. In short, for the big four, the ‘managed era’ of international education is now upon us (Chew and Durnin 2025, 8).
2025 may represent a historic pivot in the trajectory of international education, as the four largest provider nations of education to international students tighten access to student visas. The boost in international student enrollments in countries displaying a welcome mat will support healthy diversification of student cohorts in those locations, but there are less-than-desirable consequences that may play out.
Through all the policy change announcements, there is a thread of commonality around what type of international student or scholar is desired, and therefore who will be granted a visa. Successful applicants must hold a suitable passport, come from the right kind of education and social background, demonstrate the economic means to meet defined thresholds, and hold an invitation to study at the right institution. While there are variations across the big four destination countries, there are also many commonalities.
Combine these characteristics with the investment priorities of students and their families, and it is highly foreseeable that restricted access will create an even greater shift in demand for top-ranked institutions. Attempts by policymakers to direct student choice to lower-ranked institutions in less prominent locations may face challenges with the rational choice of the free market to maximize students’ return on investment. After all, it is mostly individuals and their families who cover the costs of studying overseas.
Conclusion
There are some important questions for international educators to consider during this next phase of international education, including:
- How can international educators provide support on understanding the implications of policy changes for students and their families (therefore, saving time and managing expectations on unrealistic options)?
- How can international educators influence governments and officials to be more transparent on visa processes and decisions so students and their families have accurate guidance when entering visa application systems?
- How many generations of students may be impacted by the recent shift in policy settings and how do international educators realign institutional goals accordingly?
- How can international educators and institutions work better with local communities to communicate and share the benefits of international students and scholars?
- What will be the impact on local, national, and global research ecosystems?
Returning to the question of whether international educators are promoting brain drain, gain, or circulation through the most recent changes in the international higher education environment, the answer may be closer to ‘talent stratification.’ At least while the big four destination countries define who can enter for education and who can stay to work.
In the long term, the talent ecosystem will likely become less about nation-states and more about the global system of privileged institutions. More students staying home or choosing to study in their geographic area could lead to larger pools of highly skilled workers in developing and emerging regions. Ultimately, brain circulation of young people combined with a noticeable degree of talent stratification may define the next stage of international education.
References
Australian Government. 2024. “Student and Temporary Graduate Visa Changes: 2024.” Study Australia (website). Updated July 1, 2024. https://www.studyaustralia.gov.au/en/tools-and-resources/news/student-and-temporary-graduate-visa-changes-2024.
Chew, John and Matt Durnin. 2025. Internationalisation in the Midst of Slowbalisation. Nous Group, Navitas, The PIE.
Education Malaysia Global Services. 2025. “International Student Data.” Ministry of Higher Education Malaysia (website). https://educationmalaysia.gov.my/more/student-data/international-student-data.
GOV.UK. 2023. “Changes to Student Visa Route Will Reduce Net Migration.” UK Government (website). Updated May 25, 2023.
https://www.gov.uk/government/news/changes-to-student-visa-route-will-reduce-net-migration.
Government of Canada. 2024. “Canada to Stabilize Growth and Decrease Number of New International Student Permits Issued to Approximately 360,000 for 2024.” Government of Canada (website). Updated January 22, 2024. https://www.canada.ca/en/immigration-refugees-citizenship/news/2024/01/canada-to-stabilize-growth-and-decrease-number-of-new-international-student-permits-issued-to-approximately-360000-for-2024.html.
Ilieva, Janet. 2017. Do Political Events in Host Countries Affect International Education Engagement? IDP Education and International Education Association of Australia.
OECD (Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development). 2008. The Global Competition for Talent: Mobility of the Highly Skilled. Paris: Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development.
Rizvi, Fazal. 2005. “Rethinking ‘Brain Drain’ in the Era of Globalisation.” Asia Pacific Journal of Education 25 (2): 175–92.
Skikne, Cara. 2025. The Global Enrolment Benchmark Survey. Global Summary Report. NAFSA: Association of International Educators, Oxford Test of English, and Studyportals.
Stanford University. 2023. “Evaluating the Success of China’s ‘Young Thousand Talents’ STEM Recruitment Program.” Center on China’s Economy and Institutions (website). https://sccei.fsi.stanford.edu/china-briefs/evaluating-success-chinas-young-thousand-talents-stem-recruitment-program.
The Economist. 2002. “Outward Bound: Do Developing Countries Gain or Lose When Their Brightest Talents Go Abroad?” The Economist (website). Updated September 26, 2002. https://www.economist.com/special-report/2002/09/26/outward-bound.
Toosi, Nahal and Bazail-Eimil, Eric. 2025. “State Department Unveils Social Media Screening for All Student Visa Applicants.” POLITICO (website). Updated June 18, 2025.
https://www.politico.com/news/2025/06/18/social-media-screening-student-visas-00413160.
UNESCO Institute of Statistics. 2024. Global Flow of Tertiary-level Students. UNESCO.
Davina Potts, PhD, is the director of Future Students at the University of Melbourne where she leads student recruitment and selection efforts. She often focuses her research on the intersection of international experiences and employment. Potts has experience in higher education on four continents, including work at universities in Australia, Italy, and the United States and as a representative of the Australian Government in Latin America. She is an Honorary Fellow with the Centre for the Study of Higher Education at the University of Melbourne.